British Future says UK Government should learn from Biden administration’s successful ‘routes and returns’ policy
A new report published today by the think tank British Future has argued that the Government can only reduce the number of small boat crossings in the English Channel by adopting a "routes and returns" strategy, which would combine the rapid return of people to France alongside the creation of capped, legal routes for asylum seekers to enter the UK.
The 36-page report, How we can actually stop the boats: Bringing control and compassion back to the UK asylum system, can be downloaded here.
At the heart of the report is the argument that UK's existing 'one in, one out' pilot arrangement with France needs to be very significantly expanded to offer a sustainable solution. The current scheme only allows for a small number of returns and admissions each week, amounting to a limited deterrent. British Future says that scaling this up by ten to twenty times could change the incentives for asylum seekers and people smugglers alike.
Under British Future's proposals, the vast majority of asylum seekers arriving in the UK after crossing the Channel would be returned to France, while people would be allowed to enter the UK to claim asylum via an expanded, regularised route.
The report highlights the experience of the United States, where the Biden administration introduced a similar framework in late 2023. It explains: "Recent evidence from the US shows just how effective such a 'routes and returns' policy can be. It is a little-known fact that Joe Biden's US administration reduced illegal border crossings from Mexico by 77 % between December 2023 and August 2024. It was achieved through a three-pronged approach that is very similar to the UK-France pilot. Diplomatic efforts to secure strong cooperation agreements with neighbouring countries through which migrants are travelling; a tough approach to irregular border crossings, significantly reducing the chance of successfully claiming asylum for those arriving without permission; and a substantial official scheme through which people could apply to come to the country."
This approach undermined smuggling networks by making irregular journeys far less attractive compared to the chances of entering the country via an official route. The report states: "This scaled and integrated strategy sent a clear message to would-be migrants: heading to the border with smugglers was dangerous, expensive and would almost certainly result in removal to Mexico or deportation back to the country of origin. The best way to get into the United States was to queue up, apply through one of the legal routes, and seek admission through a controlled and orderly process. There was no guarantee of getting admitted, but at least there was a chance."
By December 2024, illegal border crossings were down 81% compared to December 2023, and expanded legal routes helped reduce illegal crossings from the four main countries of origin by 91% (from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela).
Research commissioned by British Future for the report suggests the public would support such an approach in the UK. Polling by Ipsos found that 55 per cent of respondents favoured a UK-France agreement that combined capped authorised arrivals with the return of irregular entrants, with just 15 per cent opposed. Support was consistent across party lines, including majorities of Conservative, Labour, and Liberal Democrat voters. Even when the proposed ceiling was raised to 50,000 authorised arrivals annually, support continued to outweigh opposition by more than two to one.
According to British Future, the findings suggest that the electorate favours a system that is both firm and fair, providing order and control while upholding Britain's role as a refuge for those in need.
In terms of the political risks, the report notes that successive governments have pledged to 'stop the boats' or 'smash the gangs' without success, eroding public trust. Without tangible progress, British Future warns, Labour could face an electoral backlash, with Reform UK poised to make gains on an anti-immigration platform. The report calls on Keir Starmer to act boldly and decisively, pointing to the recent US experience as a cautionary tale: although the Biden administration ultimately reduced border crossings, years of indecision allowed Donald Trump to dominate the debate, framing Democrats as weak on immigration.
British Future said: "We recommend that the UK government set the goal of a 75% reduction in small boat arrivals over the next three years. The American example strongly suggests that a coordinated strategy, if it is big enough and bold enough, can achieve similar results. Firstly, it corrects for the American mistake of waiting until it was too late to impact public opinion and the 2024 election. Second, it puts the scaling of policy elements at the service of reaching the goal. So if the UK government needs to increase the numbers admitted under the new UK-France 'routes and returns' deal by a factor of 10 (25,000 per year) or even 20 (50,000 per year), they would do so as part of a strategy to reduce small boat arrivals by 75%. Given the public's prioritisation of control over numbers, a bold goal and increased legal admissions is better placed to withstand attacks on the strategy from opponents."