ILPA highlights 20 things you might not know about Home Office’s earned settlement proposals

The Immigration Law Practitioners' Association (ILPA) last which published a briefing outlining 20 points you might not know about the Government's proposed "earned settlement" reforms, which would change how migrants qualify for indefinite leave to remain (ILR).

You can download the briefing here.

ILPA highlights that while the reforms are widely understood as replacing the current five-year route to settlement with a 10-year qualifying period, most applicants would, in fact, be on either a five-year (or shorter) route or a 15-year (or longer) route.

The briefing cites an estimate for main Skilled Worker applicants who entered the route between the fourth quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2026, excluding the second and third quarters of 2024. It estimates that 48% would face a route of 15 years or more under the earned settlement policy, 44% a route of five years or less, and only 8% a 10-year route.

Some applicants could face even longer waits. Refugees who cannot switch to a work route could face a 20-year route, while additional penalties linked to factors such as claiming public funds or overstaying for more than six months could, in some cases, result in waits of 30 years or more.

ILPA says the 20-year route for refugees in unprecedented. It states: "There is no precedent for a qualifying period this long, either in past UK practice or in comparable countries, making the UK an outlier. … By placing those who seeking asylum on a 20-year route this government appears to be taking a punitive approach to those who are seeking sanctuary in the UK."

The briefing highlights potential differences in impact by race and nationality. Citing research by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), ILPA says migrants from African and South Asian countries are more likely to be on the 15-year route, while most migrants from North America and Europe will be on the 5-year route.

ILPA estimates that a family of four on a 10-year route could pay more than £68,000 in visa fees and Immigration Health Charges at current rates. It also cites independent analysis estimating that between 60,000 and 90,000 children could be living in relative poverty by 2029 as a result of the proposals.

In addition, the income-based requirements would disproportionately affect women. The briefing points to women's greater likelihood of being the primary caregiver in a relationship, which can mean working reduced hours or not working outside the home. ILPA says single parents, older working people, carers, and disabled people would face similar disproportionate impacts.

The briefing also warns that longer periods of temporary immigration status could increase financial pressure and vulnerability to exploitation, particularly for people dependent on an employer or family member for their immigration status.

ILPA further warns: "A significant number of people are likely to fall out of lawful status over such an extended period, whether through inability to afford renewal fees, missed deadlines, or Home Office error. It can result in people losing their job, their home, their NHS care and in worst cases, in being detained and removed from the UK. Without this safety net this cohort becomes more vulnerable to exploitation."

An overstretched immigration advice sector and a Home Office struggling with current capacity and capability may be unable to handle the additional complexity and case volume that the earned settlement proposals would generate.

More broadly, ILPA warns that the proposals could deter highly skilled workers the UK wants to attract. It points out that even where a high-earning main applicant could qualify for settlement after three years, their partner or children could face a much longer wait. ILPA also argues that changing the rules for migrants already part-way through their route to settlement could undermine confidence in the stability and fairness of the immigration system, with some highly skilled migrants potentially having other options elsewhere.