Cross-party think tank argues for new deal between state and citizens on way immigration policy is developed and implemented
An interesting new report by the cross-party think tank Demos argues that the Government's "earned settlement" immigration reforms offer an opportunity to engage the public and break what it describes as a "democratic doom loop" of mistrust, disengagement and political ineffectiveness.
The 47-page report, Settling Up: A new deal to unlock immigration reform and build trust, can be downloaded here.
It describes immigration as "one of the most politically charged and publicly divisive issues of the day," taking place against a backdrop of falling trust in political institutions and the state's ability to manage immigration "competently, fairly and transparently."
According to the report, immigration policy has become "a lightning rod for public frustrations about political delivery and accountability," driven not only by migration numbers but by perceptions of control, fairness and consistency. It states that "the gap between how immigration policy is made and how it is understood by much of the public has widened, reinforcing mistrust and making it increasingly hard to win public consent for reforms."
Demos says that immigration is an issue at the heart of widespread public distrust in politics, being emblematic of government failures to fulfil promises and seeming inability to deliver on public priorities. The report notes: "The number of people who have little or no confidence in this government on immigration has risen to around three quarters of the population, while just 18% do have confidence and this is falling – with the most significant decrease (17%) coming from 2024 Labour voters."
The report describes the Government's 'earned settlement' immigration reforms as "a pivotal moment" in which policymakers could address public distrust by involving citizens directly in shaping reforms, particularly on questions relating to "national identity, belonging, and social and cultural change."
While the Government has consulted on the changes, Demos argues that such consultations "tend to privilege highly engaged, organised stakeholders and vested interests, rather than reflecting broader public reasoning."
The report argues that settlement and citizenship policy reflects deeply held public values and should not be treated solely as technical matters or problems to be solved.
It states: "While earned settlement evokes fairness, contribution, responsibility, and cohesion, the consultation and policy architecture translate these principles into a largely transactional and arithmetic model of eligibility. Changes to settlement and integration are operationalised through adjustments to qualifying periods, eligibility criteria, and compliance thresholds: years added or subtracted from an individual's settlement timeline based on specified behaviours, thresholds, and compliance criteria. Complex and contested concepts such as 'meaningful contribution' and 'integration' are converted into technical inputs that risk flattening complex social judgments. The consultation sets out how time might be adjusted, but offers limited space for interrogating why certain forms of contribution should count, how they should be weighted, how fairness should be understood across different life circumstances, and how measurement of these criteria will change over time."
Demos emphasises that public attitudes are often more complex than political debate suggests. While immigration remains a major political issue, most people hold "conditional and context-dependent views," valuing contribution, clear rules, and border control, while also recognising the economic and social benefits migration can bring. However, the report states that this "silent centreground" is frequently obscured by "political narratives and media framings that benefit the louder and more extreme ends of the arguments."
Central to the report is the concept of deliberative public participation, in which representative groups of citizens would engage with evidence, discuss trade-offs, and reach considered conclusions. Such processes, it argues, can help clarify concepts such as "contribution" and "integration", which would allow the immigration policy that proceeds from these concepts to be built on firm foundations that have public buy-in and legitimacy.
"We argue for a new deal between state and citizens around the way immigration policy is developed and implemented. By working with people and communities, the public’s priorities and anxieties around immigration will be better understood and their preferences for how the system should work in practice can be encoded more effectively in policy. This way, contribution and integration bear legislative meanings that are recognisable in terms of people’s values and concerns," Demos said.
Demos recommends: "The Home Office should commission national-level deliberative processes to inform the design of the earned settlement system. These should focus explicitly on value-laden questions such as:
• what forms of contribution should count towards settlement;
• how economic, social and civic contributions should be balanced;
• how fairness should be understood across different routes, sectors and life circumstances.
Participants should be broadly representative of the UK population, supported with balanced evidence, and given sufficient time to deliberate. Government should make clear in advance how the outputs will shape policy decisions."
The report concludes that placing public deliberation at the centre of immigration reform could help rebuild legitimacy and trust, stating that by involving citizens meaningfully, government could demonstrate responsiveness and create policies with broader public consent.
"There is an immense opportunity to depolarise immigration and build back public trust in a system that feels practical and realistic, fair and legally sound. It is possible to build a new deal on immigration that is in tune with the public such that they recognise their values being applied within the policy. Deliberative public participation is the way to achieve this," Demos stated.