A longer route to settlement
Earned settlement scheme stipulates a new 10-year baseline requirement for settlement which will apply across most immigration categories and may, in some cases, extend the residence requirement for ILR to 30 years.
Dependants will no longer qualify for ILR at the same time as the main applicant or after 5 years of continuous residence and will have to "earn settlement" in their own right.
In the past, successive governments were on the whole careful to respect legitimate expectations of migrants. Where immigration options were offered as a 5-year route or 10-year route to settlement, this was considered as a promise that at the end of the requisite period the person will be eligible for settlement provided other requirements are met. It is not clear if such legitimate expectations will be respected on this occasion.
Sponsored workers are understandably worried if they are going to be affected and immigration lawyers are making guesses, but there is no definitive answer. Sadly, it may be anticipated that at least some of the existing skilled workers may be adversely affected.
Here is my guess at what skilled workers and their families may expect.
High earners and their dependants
Earned settlement framework will bring good news for high earners. Skilled workers with an annual salary of £125,140 or more for a period of at least three years will qualify for settlement after 3 years rather than 5. I would expect that the qualifying three years will include time before the introduction of the new rules in 2026.
Dependants of high earners may have two options: either proceed to settlement in their own right if they are tax payers in the UK and have taxable income of at least £50,270, they may qualify for at least three consecutive years, they may qualify for ILR after 5 years of residence.
If the dependant does not have the sufficient level of earnings, they will be able to switch into the partner route once the main visa holder gets ILR. This way they will qualify for ILR after 5 years of residence as the spouse or partner of a settled person.
If the dependent is earning a salary of at least £12,570 for the requisite period of time (which is still subject to consultation), they would qualify for ILR after 10 years of residence, or after 9 years if they pass the English language test to C1 level.
Mid earners and dependents
The new rules place mid earners in the salary bracket between £50,270 and £125,000 a year.
Mid earners will qualify for ILR after 5 years of residence provided they were in receipt of this level of salary for at least 3 years. The five year period cannot be reduced further by voluntary work or knowledge of English.
So skilled workers earning £50,270 a year and above will not be affected.
Dependants of mid earners will either qualify in their own right through their own earnings, or will have to switch into the partner route once the main visa holder is settled and qualify for ILR as a partner of a settled person. In this scenario, they should be eligible for settlement after 10 years of residence.
Low earners
The minimum salary requirement for skilled workers is currently set to £41,700. But even lower historic thresholds will be well above the minimum "contribution" requirement for earned settlement, which will be £12570 per year. So workers with a salary under £50,270 will require a longer period of sponsorship to meet the 10-year residence requirement.
Those who studied in the UK and then held a graduate visa may have accumulated a considerable period of continuous residence that would count towards the qualifying period for settlement under the long residence rule and may potentially be spared the adverse effect of the new rules. But those who came to the UK to work with the expectation of settlement after 5 years will face a prolonged period of uncertainty, unless transitional arrangements will be there to save them.
Skilled workers in occupations below RQF level 6
This category of workers will be hit the most and most unfairly. It is proposed that the baseline for skilled workers in occupations below RQF level six should be 15 years rather than 10.
We don't know if such a severely discriminatory provision will apply to workers already in the UK with the expectation of settlement after 5 years.
Annual income of at least £50,270 will reduce this baseline by 5 years, bringing the residence requirement down to 10 years.
The idea of taxable earnings
Interestingly enough, the concept of taxable earnings is open to interpretation. Will taxable earnings include the 0-rated personal allowance? Will taxable income from property, including overseas property rental count towards taxable earnings?
For many skilled workers, concerned if their salary would be sufficient to reduce the baseline residence requirements, supplementary or secondary employment may offer additional opportunities.
It may also be appropriate to review the roles of the skilled worker and their dependant. Under the current rules, it is not unusual for the sponsored worker to earn a lower salary than their dependant who is not restricted by the sponsored employment and has a wider choice of options. The "earned settlement" framework will make it important for the family that the sponsored worker earns not less than £50,270 – otherwise the whole family will face years of uncertainty before qualifying for ILR. So the roles within the family may be reviewed to expedite settlement.
Dependent children
Children born in the UK are eligible to be registered as British citizens as soon as at least one of the parents becomes settled.
If the child was not born in the UK, the child will qualify for ILR when both parents are settled or when one parent is already settled and the other is applying at the same time with the child.
When the qualifying baseline period for ILR is extended, there will be more young adults who came to the UK as children but didn't qualify for ILR before they reached 18. This is particularly disconcerting, as there are no provisions in the consultation paper as to any kind of arrangements to protect these people or prevent them from falling into a limbo category, with no ties with their country of origin and no rights in the country where they live.
Dependants with disabilities
So far, "earned settlement" programme makes no provisions for dependent family members with disabilities. The consultation questionnaire invites public opinion as to what vulnerable groups of people should be subject to exclusion from the "earned settlement" programme, and it is very important that disability rights groups and individual members of the public express their views. The consultation is open to all, including people with a immigration status temporary status in the UK, as well as for registered sponsors, other businesses, charities and community support organisations.