Office for National Statistics estimates net migration at +431,000 in 2024, down from +860,000 in 2023
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released its latest provisional long-term international migration statistics today. They cover the year ending December 2024 and you can read the statistical bulletin online here.
As widely reported in the media this morning, the headline finding is a very significant fall in net migration compared to the year ending December 2023.
The ONS provisionally estimates net migration in 2024 to be +431,000, down by almost 50% compared with +860,000 a year earlier. It is the largest fall in net migration on record in absolute numerical terms.
The ONS noted: "This change is driven by a decrease in immigration from non-EU+ nationals, where we are seeing reductions in people arriving on work- and study-related visas, and an increase in emigration over the 12 months to December 2024, especially people leaving who originally came on study visas once pandemic travel restrictions to the UK were eased."
In the year ending December 2024, an estimated 948,000 people came to the UK to live for 12 months or more. This is a drop from the previous year, when immigration was estimated at 1,326,000. Of those who arrived in 2024, about 81% (766,000 people) were from non-EU countries, 13% (122,000 people) were from EU countries, and 6% (60,000 people) were British nationals returning to the UK.
James Cleverly, former Home Secretary under the previous Conservative government, took to social media to claim credit for the sharp drop in net migration, attributing it to a series of policy changes introduced during his tenure. He highlighted key measures including raising the salary threshold for skilled worker visas to £38,700, banning care workers from bringing dependants, increasing the minimum income requirement for family visas, and tightening the rules on student dependants.
The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford has published a helpful and concise summary of today's figures. Dr Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory, commented: "This record-breaking decline in net migration was possible primarily because numbers had previously been so high. UK migration patterns in 2023 were very unusual, with unexpectedly large numbers of visas for care workers, international students, and their family members. This made it easier for the government at that time to bring down the numbers. The economic impact of this decline is actually likely to be relatively small. That's because the groups that have driven the decline, such as study and work dependants, are neither the highest skilled, highest-paid migrants who make substantial contributions to tax revenues, nor the most disadvantaged groups that require substantial support."
Professor Jonathan Portes argues in a post on UK in a Changing Europe today that while falling immigration may be welcomed by the Home Office, it won't be by the Treasury. Portes says net migration will continue to fall and this will throw into sharp relief the tension between migration reductions and the economic growth necessary to improve living standards and finance better public services.
Also today, the Home Office has released its latest immigration system statistics covering the year ending March 2025. The various documents can be accessed here on GOV.UK. The Home Office's summary of the figures is available here.
According to the data, asylum claims reached 109,000 over the 12-month period, relating to 85,000 individual cases. This marks the highest number of asylum claims in a year in the UK since records began, surpassing the previous peak of 103,000 in 2002.
The number of people arriving in the UK after crossing the Channel by small boat was around 38,000 in the year ending March 2025, a 22% increase over the previous year but 17% fewer than in 2022.
Despite a 11% drop in the number of initial asylum decisions compared to the previous year, the 94,000 decisions made in 2025 still exceed any annual figure between 2003 and 2022. Of these decisions, 49% resulted in a grant of asylum to main applicants, down from 61% in the year ending March 2024.
Work-related immigration also saw notable changes. A total of 192,000 work visas were granted to main applicants, a 39% fall from the previous year but still 40% higher than in 2019. 'Health and Care Worker' visas dropped sharply, with just 23,000 granted, an 85% decline from the category's 2023 peak. Meanwhile, visas in other 'Worker' routes, including the 'Skilled Worker' route, fell by 23% compared to the previous year.
Student migration showed a mixed trend. The number of sponsored study visas issued to international students dropped by 10% to 403,000, but remained 50% higher than in 2019. Visas issued to dependants of students plummeted by 83% to 18,000 compared to the previous year.
Family-related migration remained relatively stable, with 76,000 visas granted, a 3% year-on-year decline. However, this figure is more than double the number of family visas issued in the year to March 2021.