A week before Scotland goes to the polls, the outcome of the independence referendum seems too close to call. But what could be its implications for immigration policy?
Next Thursday's independence referendum has galvanised the population of Scotland, leading to hot debate over the issues likely to shape the future of the British Isles. Migrant and BME groups in Scotland, too, have been actively debating the implications of independence in recent weeks. Some international migrants living in Scotland will be eligible to cast their votes in the referendum, including those who have naturalised as British citizens and qualifying Commonwealth citizens resident in Scotland.
Migrants' rights advocates based across the UK have also been keenly watching the developments around the referendum - not least because of the potential implications of Scottish independence for mobility throughout the British Isles, and for international immigration to Scotland into the future. Here is our round-up of the possible developments - and the many remaining question marks - likely to arise after the votes have been counted.
In the event of a 'yes' vote
If the 'yes' vote in Scotland carries on 18th September then there will be widespread impacts on immigration policy in Scotland. It is planned that Scotland would become an independent country 18 months after the referendum, and following democratic elections. Thus far, the clearest plans for post-independence immigration rules have been put forward by the Scottish National Party (SNP).
According to an SNP white paper released in 2013, Scottish citizenship laws could be automatically granted to all British citizens considered habitually resident in or born in Scotland at the time of independence. Those with a Scottish parent or grandparent would be able to apply for Scottish citizenship. Migrants would be able to naturalise as Scottish citizens - although unclear it looks like this could take place after ten years lawful residence in Scotland (nearly twice as long as it currently takes to naturalise as a British citizen).
The SNP wishes for an independent Scotland to remain a part of the Common Travel Area (CTA) across the British Isles, which provides for citizens (but not migrants) to travel with minimal identity documents between the UK and Ireland. This would help to ensure that travel between Scotland and the remainder of the UK (rUK) remained easy. It also advocates membership of the European Union for Scotland, but has said that although Scotland would of course be subject to free movement rules it would not seek to be part of the borderless EU Schengen area.
On immigration and asylum policy, the SNP has advocated a more positive and welcoming set of measures, with the aim of attracting more migrants, for an independent Scotland. Among these include opening up Scotland's economic migration routes by reducing the financial requirements for applicants and new measures to attract international students. It proposes that the Scottish asylum system be separated from the immigration system, and the Scottish immigration detention centre, Dungavel, be closed alongside new steps to make removals more humane.
So would all this come to pass in an independent Scotland? Perhaps, although the details of Scottish immigration policy would of course depend on the outcome of post-referendum developments, including the outcome of the first Scottish national election. Although opinion polls suggest that a majority of Scots agree that immigration policy affecting Scotland should be decided in Holyrood, the SNP's call for measures to attract more migrants may not in the event of independence chime so well with the 58% of Scots who say they want to see less, rather than more, immigration.
In practice, an independent Scotland may additionally face difficult negotiations with the rUK and the European Union regarding immigration policy. Thus far, the UK government has refused to confirm whether Scotland could continue to be included within the CTA with rUK and Ireland as envisaged by the SNP.
The issue here has been the uncertainty of an independent Scotland's position within the European Union and, in particular, whether as a new member state it would be required to join the Schengen zone. This would be incompatible with Scotland's continued inclusion in the CTA. The SNP envisages that negotiations would begin over Scotland's independent membership of the European Union as soon as possible after a yes vote, in order to ease a smooth transition to independence 18 months from now. However, states acceding to the European Union are now required to become members of the Schengen zone, meaning that Scotland could have to secure an opt-out from Schengen in its negotiations with the EU - not a guaranteed outcome. The UK government has also threatened that continued membership of the CTA could be dependent on Scotland introducing immigration policies, for example, on non-EU economic migration, that are compatible with those in rUK and Ireland.
Of course, it could turn out that Scotland's negotiations both with the UK and the EU are in the event easier than has been threatened by a Westminster keen to keep Scotland within the UK. However, there remain continued question marks here, the answers to which would fundamentally affect the shape of future mobility across Britain, as well as international immigration policy in an independent Scotland.
In the event of a 'no' vote
Rapid developments during the run-up to the referendum make it likely now that a 'no' vote in Scotland would lead to wider powers being transferred to the Scottish parliament in Holyrood under a 'devo max' package. This would not include new powers over immigration policy, however, which would continue to remain a matter reserved for central government. This would no doubt disappoint those who continue to advocate for more devolved input into immigration policy.
Going on its past track record, Scotland could be expected to continue to agitate against Westminster's iron grip on immigration policy. There have long been calls for Scotland to have more powers to be able to recruit and attract skilled workers, more generous policies relating to students (such as the Scottish 'Fresh Talent Scheme' which was closed in 2008) and to be able to adopt a more humane approach towards asylum seekers and undocumented migrants. It is possible that a devo max package leading to a more powerful Scottish government could increase the pressure on Westminster for some greater say over immigration and asylum policy.
It also seems certain that immigration issues relating to devolved powers, such as migrant access to healthcare, would be likely to become more starkly different north of the border as well as in Wales and Northern Ireland. Planned health reforms in England for 2015, which could introduce new charges for irregular migrants in GP surgeries and, potentially, in A & E departments too, would be very unlikely to be implemented in Scotland. The authorities there have thus far largely resisted tough changes affecting the rights of migrants in accessing basic public services.
The challenges for migrants' rights advocates
Whichever way the vote goes on 18th September, there will be challenges ahead for migrants rights' groups in Scotland.
In the event of a 'yes' vote, the task ahead would be to ensure that migrant interests are taken fully into account when an independent Scottish government sets about writing its immigration policy. No doubt immigration would prove to be an important issue in the post-referendum election in Scotland, and advocates would need to work hard to ensure that the humane reforms put forward so far as part of the vision of independence came to pass.
If it's a 'no' vote, the challenge would be how to seize any new opportunities that may arise following negotiations over 'devo max'. Could additional leverage be found to strengthen calls from civil society and politicians for Edinburgh to have more control over asylum determination procedures, a greater input into economic migration and international student policies, and reforms to immigration enforcement practices north of the border?
The significance of the referendum for immigration policy will only become clearer during the weeks and months following the vote. What seems certain, though, is that the outcome of next Thursday could have a huge impact on the British political landscape - with implications for migrants' rights both in Scotland and for the rest of the UK.