The Conservative Party finds itself in a never-ending brawl on a number of issues, in particular Europe and equal marriage. But one thing is clear: David Cameron has so far been unwilling to fight on immigration. He's happy for his Tory backbenchers to lead on the direction of policy making.
The current hot-potato immigration issue is access to free healthcare, a matter long-considered within the overall reforms to health. It was recently the subject of a long debate in parliament, in which the Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt agreed to review 'primary care' as 'a critical access point' for immigrants.
The success of Tory backbenchers in chipping away at what they see as 'pull-factors' of European inward migration occupies what seems to be a strategic space left by the Tory leadership, and allows the Right in the party to lead on the policy narrative and occupy the UKIP-leaning space.
A lot has already been achieved. A successful reduction in net immigration figures (bringing down number of students, family reunions, and cap on businesses) is one. The 'tens of thousands' target figure seems achievable, however, it also seems some on the Conservative backbenches are becoming increasingly impatient in wanting to see more draconian measures, especially now that the United Kingdom Independence Party continues to ride high in the polls at the expense of Tory MPs with jittery electorates.
Leaving the hard-liners to drive the policy initiative could turn out badly for David Cameron. The example of the UK's place within the European Union – a move left for Tory Eurosceptics to lead the narrative on renegotiation – has damaged the cohesive nature of what was supposed to be a diverse policy programme that shot across the political spectrum, including tearing into the Centre-ground on equal marriage and Lords Reform. The Tories now have an asymmetrical problem – they can't agree on the assorted policy programme that could aim to deliver a majority in 2015.
If applied to immigration, a prominent question that is likely to be asked some time in the near future is whether a ceiling exists that provokes the progressive wing of the Conservative Party to fight back on immigration policy? Much like Europe, the acceptance level of allowing Eurosceptics to drive policy was a renegotiation of the current relationship, not leaving the Union. Now senior Tories are breaking ranks and jumping on the 'leave the EU' bandwagon. Where does that leave immigration?
Restrictions are being pushed on housing, benefits, legal aid and health, which aim to bring about further divide in entitlement based on immigration status. Some MPs appear to want to go further and remove the right of immigrants to take a case to a judicial review.
This brings about a depressing scenario that paves the way for the initiation of a policy programme that includes zero net immigration in the Conservatives 2015 manifesto commitments. A pessimist would argue that, with current tensions in the Conservative Party, this would be accepted without a fight.
However, there have been recent examples of Tories willing to stick their heads up above the parapet. Some have acknowledged that immigrants workhard and contribute to society and others have been vocal in support of family migration and specific groups of migrants such as Afghan interpreters resettling to the UK. An increasing number of Tory MPs are also pushing for the relaxation of visas for highly skilled migrants and foreign students. So individuals who would back a progressive line on immigration do exist.
But the question remains. If (or maybe when) Tory backbenchers push for a tougher regime on immigration, even propose a zero net migration target, will David Cameron launch a counter-attack or will he relent?
[Read and comment on the original blog post at http://www.migrantsrights.org.uk/blog/2013/06/cameron-relenting-backbenchers-immigration-policy]