New report provides a guide to UK's complex immigration landscape, looking both backwards and forwards
A useful new report by the academic thinktank UK in a Changing Europe takes an expert look at the immigration landscape in the UK in the two years since the introduction of the post-Brexit immigration system in January 2021.
The 34-page report can be downloaded here.
The report was authored by Professor Jonathan Portes of King's College London and Madeleine Sumption of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, with contributions from Catherine Barnard, Fiona Costello, Rob Ford, Stephen Hunsaker, Sophie Stowers and Peter Walsh.
As the report notes, while the end of free movement did reduce migration in sectors previously reliant on relatively lower skilled/paid workers from the EU, the overall immigration picture since Brexit has unexpectedly seen record levels of net migration. There have been large increases in the numbers arriving on migration routes such as student visas and from Hong Kong and Ukraine.
The authors state: "This report provides a guide to this complex landscape, looking both backwards and forwards. We explain the origins of the new system: how immigration and free movement contributed to the vote for Brexit, how the UK government's 'red line' on free movement drove the nature of the eventual Brexit deal, and the origins and functioning of the EU Settlement Scheme. We set out the current state of the migration system for the main groups of migrants to the UK: those coming to work, students, family members, and those seeking asylum. And we discuss what future trends are likely to emerge, and the key issues that are likely to confront policy makers against the background of a British public that is more positive about immigration than at any time in living memory."
On the post-Brexit immigration system, the report notes it is much more restrictive, costly, and less flexible for EU citizens, but simultaneously more liberal for non-EU citizens. Between 2018 and 2022, the number of visas issued to non-EU workers increased by 200,000 (104%)
"The salary requirement is just over £4,000 lower than it was before Brexit, middle-skilled jobs such as skilled trades are newly eligible for sponsored work visas, and there are more opportunities for graduates to get unsponsored work visas," the report explains.
Among the many interesting points raised in the report, the authors note that polling shows public anxieties around immigration have been far more muted since the referendum: "The shift in mood may reflect a belief that Brexit has delivered stricter controls on immigration. Freedom of movement has now ended. People looking to work in Britain, whether from the EU or beyond, must meet a salary threshold, and possess an offer of 'skilled' work and sponsorship from an employer, to receive a visa. This policy approach is broadly popular and makes it harder to claim the government is not exercising control over who comes to Britain, even if overall migration levels remain high."
Voters are now more likely to see migration as a solution to labour shortages and a driver of economic growth. Though as the report notes, public and political concern has now centred instead on the number of people crossing the Channel on small boats.
Looking ahead, the authors predict that net migration is likely to remain relatively high for the foreseeable future, even if it will almost certainly fall back from its current record levels. Overall, there is little prospect of the UK seeing a period of stability in the immigration landscape that some predicted would follow Brexit and the UK taking control of its immigration policy.
Jonathan Portes said: "The positive turn in public opinion, and the general acceptance of the principles – if not necessarily the detail – of the post-Brexit immigration system should offer an opportunity to secure public consent for an approach that reflects both economic realities and political constraints. But that will require a degree of commitment, in particular to maintaining a broadly stable policy environment despite inevitable political and business pressures to tinker with the system in one way or another. This means largely 'looking through' the very large increases in the headline figures, mostly driven by temporary factors, rather than overreacting with hasty policy change. It will also require an approach to refugee flows that addresses current pressures in a more humane and cost-effective way, while managing public expectations about the power of the tools the government holds."