The Expert has been studying Afghanistan since 2001 as a UK government political and military analyst and also at the world-acclaimed international think-tank, SIPRI, in Stockholm. As of September 2016, he has completed over 160 Afghanistan Expert Reports for over 45 law firms. He is very responsive to short notice deadlines, has a quick turnaround time and he is very happy to discuss early initial thoughts to assist you and your client at no obligation. He has excellent impartial research, analysis and communication skills and was awarded an MBE for his Afghanistan work in 2005.
Performance feedback - judges
“Mr Foxley’s experience and expertise was undisputed by the Respondent at the hearing…I find that he is appropriately qualified to opine upon the matters contained within his report. In addition, the report is based upon up to date material from reputable sources…the report reads as balanced and objective; it is not limited to only evidence and conclusions that support the Appellant’s claim. For these reasons I accept Mr Foxley’s expertise and the relevant conclusions of his report…” (First Tier Tribunal Judge, 2020)
“Mr Foxley is a genuine expert. He has been studying Afghanistan since 2001…I find that the report written by Mr Foxley is written in an even-handed manner and is well sourced. I find that it is a most reliable document…I unhesitatingly agree with Mr Foxley’s analysis of what is likely to befall the Appellant if he is returned to his home area.” (First Tier Tribunal Judge, 2018)
“Having read and carefully assessed [Mr Foxley’s] report, I was satisfied that it was a report of high quality, upon which I could place significant reliance. Mr Foxley’s statements are properly backed by evidential bases which are fully outlined. His report reads as balanced and objective, answering the question put of him with care and providing commentary which highlights both positive and negative aspects of the Appellant’s claim.” (First Tier Tribunal Judge, 2017)
Performance feedback - lawyers
April 2020
“Thanks a lot for sending the report so quickly. It is very thorough and helpful. You have addressed all my questions in detail. Thank you.”
March 2020
“xxxx's decision was decided and allowed. The Judge relied a lot on your report so as ever
thank you very much for all your hard work.”
March 2020
“Hi Tim, thanks for all your hard work on xxxx’s report. The judge was complimentary about your report – she had clearly considered it closely and accepted your conclusions - and the appeal was allowed.”
November 2019
“Thanks so much, Tim – the report is brilliant…Thanks again for working on this so quickly, it’s really helpful for us.”
November 2019
“P.S remember xxxx? You prepared two reports in relation to him. His appeal was allowed! Client is very pleased - Great work”
October 2019
“Hi Tim, Report was excellent. Client very happy.”
September 2019
“Thanks very much for this report. It is extremely thorough and impressive work.”
Since 2012 The Expert has been producing reports for a wide selection of British and US legal firms who have been representing Afghan asylum seekers. These reports – of which they have written over 500 – are intended to provide: a clear understanding of the current political, security, social and economic situation in Afghanistan; some expert comments on the plausibility of the client’s case; an assessment of the risks of returning the client based on general conditions and their specific circumstances; an overview of the security and economic situation in Kabul (usually the initial return destination for returned asylum seekers) and also in the client’s original province of origin. Within the report The Expert is comfortable covering specific issues related to the client’s particular circumstances. Examples include: risks from being in a blood feud, risks from targeting by the Taliban, risks from issues of gender or sexuality, risks from being returned with health and/or mental health problems, risks based on ethnicity (e.g. Hazara) or religion (Shia, Sikh, Christian), risk based on returning homeless or as an orphan, risks of trafficking, destitution, sexual exploitation and many others.
The Expert has been researching and analysing the political and military situation facing Afghanistan, the surrounding region and insurgency/terrorism themes since 2001: within the UK MOD from 2001 – 2012 and with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute from 2006 - 2010. They have undertaken several field trips and operational tours to Afghanistan since 2002. In 2006 and 2011 The Expert was based in Kabul for several months as an analyst within the ISAF headquarters in Kabul, where they regularly briefed senior political and military officials, including the British Ambassador and the commander of ISAF.
In March 2014 The Expert completed a six month temporary position as an Afghanistan insurgency research analyst in the UK Foreign Office. In 2013 they completed a Master’s degree (with distinction) in Peace and Conflict studies at Malmö University, specialising in Afghanistan.
Prior to their last tour in Afghanistan with the Ministry of Defence, The Expert was a researcher at the internationally acclaimed thinktank, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, (SIPRI), within the Armed Conflict and Conflict Management programme from late 2006, specializing in studies of Afghanistan, the surrounding region and related international security themes. The Expert conducted research and analysis, producing several papers, attending or organising conferences on a range of Afghanistan security and political issues. The Expert gave numerous interviews across a variety of TV, radio and the printed press. The Expert undertook several projects commissioned by the Swedish Ministry of Defence and briefed the Swedish Parliamentary Defence Committee. The Expert ran an Afghanistan-related blog featuring political and military analysis, hosted on the SIPRI website and undertook a field trip for two weeks with the Norwegian Provincial Reconstruction Team in 2008 in North West Afghanistan as an independent researcher. The Expert presented their papers to a range of civilian and military audiences, including RUSI, the Finnish National Defence College, the Swedish government and NATO.
For the period July 2009 to December 2009 The Expert was employed by the Afghan/Pakistan team of the UK Foreign Office as an exchange officer to the Swedish Foreign Ministry to advise on Afghanistan matters during the Swedish Presidency of the EU.
The Expert worked for the UK Government from 1987 to 2014. As an independent analyst and researcher, most of their regular written work is now released and available via social media (see https://afghanhindsight.wordpress.com/). For example:
“ISKP attacking minorities in Afghanistan”, article, dated 25 March 2020.
“Peace stumbles, violence resumes”, article, dated 4 March 2020.
“Taliban announce 2019 Spring Offensive”, article, dated 13 April 2019.
“Prospects for Peace”, article, dated 29 January 2019.
“Wars today cannot be won without media”, book review of “Taliban Narratives”, by Thomas Johnson, article dated 17 October 2018.
“Afghanistan: increasing civilian deaths from airstrikes”, article dated 27 September 2018.
“Taliban announce 2017 Spring Offensive”, article dated 28 April 2017.
“Afghanistan: Prospects for 2017”, article dated 25 January 2017.
“To what extent do the Taliban ‘control’ Afghanistan?”, article dated 30 August 2016.
“Refugees: no easy return options…”, article dated 30 March 2016.
“Afghanistan prospects in 2016 – frustration and stalemate”, article dated 26 December 2015.
“Death of Mullah Omar”, article dated 2 August 2015.
“The Taliban’s opium poppy ban in 2000/2001 – lessons from history”, article dated 23 May 2015.
“ISIS in Afghanistan”, article dated 6 March 2015.
A selection of non-Government, open source, papers and research I undertook from 2008 onwards as follows:
“What Will America’s Legacy Be In Afghanistan?”, article for 9 Dash Line analytical journal, April 2020.
“Islamic State in Afghanistan: future spoiler?”, article for European Foundation for South Asian Studies, March 2020
“Changing the message: improving the prospects for conflict resolution in Afghanistan”, paper for Swedish Defence Research Agency, February 2015
“Revolutionary Outcomes? How the Afghanistan conflict might evolve after 2014,” Master’s Thesis paper at Malmö University, August 2013.
“Messaging the Taliban”, chapter in DIIS paper “Taliban talks: past present and prospects”, March 2013
“Deciding the surge: Obama reinforces the war in Afghanistan”, Master’s Degree course paper, January 2013
“Conflict and Development in Afghanistan since 2001: a critical analysis based on Duffield and Uvin”, Master’s Degree course paper, October 2012
“Countering Taliban information operations in Afghanistan”, for US Department of Defence’s National Defence University in their PRISM Journal of the Centre for Complex Operations, September 2010.
“Afghanistan’s neighbours: Great Game or Regional Approach?”, paper commissioned by Swedish Ministry of Defence, August 2010.
“The Taliban’s use of fear: Countering adversary use of fear appeal”, commissioned paper for UK defence research agency, Qinetiq, February 2010.
“The Battle for Hearts and Minds in Afghanistan: the effectiveness of Taliban Information Operations and related communications activities”, paper commissioned by Swedish Ministry of Defence, March 2009.
“Where are we with the Afghan police force?”, published in European Security Review, No. 43, March 2009.
“Security and politics in Afghanistan: progress, problems and prospects”, chapter for SIPRI Yearbook 2009.
“The Provincial Reconstruction Team concept in Afghanistan – progress, problems, prospects and the Norwegian experience”, paper commissioned by the Norwegian Peace Council, November 2008.
“Where will Afghanistan be in 1, 5 and 10 years?”, paper commissioned by the Swedish Ministry of Defence, October 2008.
“Taking the media battle to the Taliban”, published in NATO Review (Afghanistan Part 1 – the issues), August 2008.
“The Taliban’s propaganda activities: how well is the insurgency communicating and what is it saying?”, SIPRI Project Paper, June 2007.