Guardian/ICM and Ipsos MORI polls find the public view immigration as second most important issue in deciding how to vote
Ahead of next year's general election, a Guardian/ICM poll has found that immigration is the second biggest issue of concern for voters.
The Guardian reported on Monday that the poll asked voters "which single issue" would "concern you most when it comes to casting your vote".
Image credit: UK GovernmentConcern over the National Health Service topped the poll on 24 per cent, and immigration was in second place with 20 per cent of respondents saying it was their biggest single issue of concern.
The poll was conducted after UKIP's victory in the Clacton by-election, and the poll also found that 14 per cent of respondents say they would vote for UKIP, pushing the Liberal Democrats into fourth place with 11 per cent support (note, however, that the Daily Telegraph's latest YouGov/Electoral Calculus prediction for the 2015 election gives UKIP no seats).
An Ipsos MORI poll in September also found immigration was the second most important issue in deciding which party the public will vote for.
With 30 per cent, immigration was narrowly behind the economy on 31 per cent and narrowly ahead of the NHS on 29 per cent. Ipsos MORI says the closeness of the top three issues means all are now effectively level pegging.
UKIP polled as the best party on immigration, with 20 per cent, though the Conservatives on 19 per cent and Labour on 18 per cent were closely behind.
However, as noted yesterday in the Guardian, a January Ipsos MORI report, Perceptions and Reality: Public Attitudes to Immigration, found that the public perception of immigration and the reality can be very different.
Ipsos MORI found that the public's average guess at what proportion of the UK population is foreign-born was 31 per cent, compared with the official estimate of around 13 per cent.
Misperceptions were also clear in the public's view of the make-up of immigrants. Ipsos MORI found in 2011 that the most mentioned were refugees or asylum-seekers, despite these being the least common immigrant type. The least mentioned group were overseas students, when in fact students were the largest category of migrant to the UK in 2011.
"So we hugely overestimate the scale of the immigrant population, and our 'imagined immigration' is focused on groups we are more negative about," the report said.
It continued: "However, we need to be careful to avoid simple conclusions that if we could inform people more effectively about the real scale and nature of immigration that this would shift views significantly. This is not just because of the challenge with this message being heard and believed – although it's worth noting that when we tell people the real scale of immigration in surveys, the most common response is to not believe the figures."
"More importantly, we need to recognise that cause and effect in these type of estimation questions is complex – we partly overestimate the groups that worry us because they worry us, not the other way round. Social psychologists call this 'emotional innumeracy': we don't just have 'accuracy goals' in mind when answering them, we also have 'directional goals': whether consciously or not, we may be expressing our concern as much as trying to get the right answer."